Estimation of Inputs to Florida Bay

Inputs from Florida Mainland - Loads

July 1998

Project Index  |  Estimation of Flows   |  Provide Comments

Introduction    |     Methods    |   Preliminary Results   |   Additional Tasks

Introduction

This section develops preliminary estimates of nutrient loads from the Florida Mainland using flow estimates derived from ENP water balances and concentrations measured at ENP marsh and coastal monitoring stations.  Supporting water quality data are displayed in the following forms:

  • Box Plots (580 kb, PDF file) showing frequency distributions of Total P, Total N, Total N/P, and Salinity in each ENP basin (Broad, Shark, Taylor, Coastal) and in each station group (Structures, Marsh, Coastal).  The data are from October 1992 - December 1997.  Stations were sampled monthly or biweekly during this period.   Percentiles shown: 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%.   Numbers of samples, values below detection limits, and median concentrations for each station are listed at the bottom of each plot.

The locations of all regional monitoring stations are shown on the attached map.  Stations used in load calculations described below are shown on another map.  Coastal stations (projects FLAB & TTI ) are operated by FIU.   Structure stations (projects ENP & CAMP, station codes starting with 'S') and marsh stations (project EVER, station codes starting with 'P') are operated by SFWMD.  Germain (1998) provides details on station locations, sampling procedures, and analytical procedures.

Salinities were generally not reported at SFWMD stations and have been estimated from conductivities using the following equation calibrated to data from FIU stations:

Salinity (ppt)  = 0.00062 x Conductivity (micro-mhos/cm)

Salinity values indicate that coastal stations (projects FLAB & TTI) are influenced to various degrees by seawater.   Concentrations of nutrients and other water quality components measured at these locations partially reflect tidal exchanges between the mangrove areas and the Bay.

As the flow leaves the ENP marsh areas and enters the coastal zone, concentrations of total phosphorus increase and total nitrogen decrease.  Boyer & Jones (1998) describe similar patterns in the Ten Thousand Island / Whitewater Bay area.   Some of the apparent increase in phosphorus concentrations may be attributed to differences in laboratory analytical procedures between the SFWMM and FIU labs.  Nutrient cycling in the mangrove areas is another potential factor;  Rudnick (1998) noted the tendancy for phosphorus concentrations in the mangrove regions of southern Taylor Slough to exceed those measured in the Everglades marshes and Florida Bay.  Increases in phosphorus concentration may be partially attributed to ET rates exceeding rainfall in the mangrove areas; this mechanism would not influence phosphorus loads, however.   Emergence of  hypothetical "underground rivers" in these areas may also contribute to the changes in nutrient concentrations and loads (Brand,1998). 

Mainland  ----->   Mangroves <------>   Bay  <-------> Reef/Gulf

Given the apparent tidal influences on the coastal stations and given the fact that the Florida Bay water quality model does not simulate nutrient transport from the Bay to mangrove areas, it does not seem appropriate to use concentrations measured at coastal stations to calculate loads from the Florida mainland.  Concentrations measured at the southernmost ENP marsh station in each basin have been used as the primary basis for calculating net loads from the mainland.  A secondary set of load estimates has been developed using coastal stations for use in sensitivity testing.  These may reflect gross loads from the coastal areas to the Bay, not the net loads required by the water quality model. 

Preliminary results described below indicate that phosphorus loads entering the Bay from the mangrove areas are approximately three times those entering the mangrove areas from the Everglades marsh (assuming no net change in flow).   The analysis does not quantify nutrient fluxes from the Bay to the mangrove areas, however.  Given the significant changes in nutrient concentrations and loads moving through the mangrove areas, nutrient dynamics in these areas may have significant impacts on formulation of Bay nutrient balances.  Comments, articles, supporting data, or alternative interpretations of the concentration patterns discussed above would be appreciated.

Methods

The following algorithm has been applied to estimate monthly total loads for each water-quality component and ENP watershed:

  1. Generate a daily time series of flow by assigning the monthly-average flow predicted by the ENP water balances to each day the month.
  2. Retrieve the concentration time series for the desired station(s) and date interval.   If more than one station is used to represent outflows in a given basin, average results across stations on each sampling date.
  3. Assign a numeric value equal to 75% of the detection limit for values reported below detection.
  4. Screen the concentration data for outliers based upon deviation from a log-scale regression of concentration against flow (Walker, 1996).
  5. Generate a daily time series of concentration by interpolating the sampled concentrations (generally monthly or biweekly) over time.  If a given date is more than 60 days from a sampling date (forward or backward), use the flow-weighted-mean concentration for the entire record instead of the interpolated value to estimate daily concentration.
  6. Repeat Steps 2-5 for each measured water quality component.
  7. Check the daily time series for internal consistency of nutrient species. (OrthoP < Total P;  Organic N + NO23-N + NH34-N = Total N).  Rescale concentrations as needed to comply with these constraints.
  8. Calculate or specify concentrations of unmeasured nutrient species required by model using stated assumptions.
  9. Multiply daily flow times daily concentration to calculate daily load for each water-quality component.
  10. Generate monthly time series by adding daily results.  Report monthly results as monthly total flow (kac-ft) and flow-weighted-mean concentration for each water-quality component.

Structure inflow loads to each ENP watershed are computed using the same algorithm.   Measured daily flow time series are used for each structure. Total inflow loads to each watershed are computed by adding up the individual loads from each structure.

The following table identifies the monitoring stations used in each watershed:

Inflow

Outflow

Outflow

Basin

Stations

Marsh

Coastal

West

None

P34*

TTI61,62,63

Broad

US41-25 + S12A

P34

FLAB29,30 31,32,33

Shark

S12BCD + S333

P35

FLAB 37,38,39,44,45,47

Taylor

TSB + S175

P37

FLAB11,12

Sable

None

P37*

FLAB44,45,47*

Coastal

S18C

EP

FLAB07,08, 10

Barnes

None

EP*

FLAB02,03,04

Date Intervals for Load Calculations ( All Basins)

Starting Date

Oct-86

Oct-86

Oct-92

Ending Date

Dec-97

Dec-97

Dec-97

* No monitoring station in watershed; use station from neighboring basin.

Stations in each category are identified on the attached map.   Periods of record specified in the above table are determined by the durations of monitoring at marsh and coastal stations.  Results will be extended through 1997, once flow estimates have been developed for 1996-1997.

The following table identifies measured water quality variables in each set of stations:

Structure or

Measured Variables

Marsh

Coastal

Total Phosphorus

1

1

Ortho Phosphorus

1

1

Total Nitrogen

1

1

Ammonia Nitrogen

1

1

Nitrite+Nitrate Nitrogen

1

1

Total Organic Nitrogen

1

1

Total Organic Carbon

2

1

Salinity

1a

1

Total Suspended Solids

3

3

Dissolved Calcium

1

2

Dissolved Silica

3

3

Alkalinity

3

3

Chlorophyll-a

2

1

1 - routinely measured, load computed

2 - not routinely measured; use load results from other station set (marsh or coastal)

3 - not routinely measured, constant concentration assumed.

a - salinity calculated from measured conductivity

Although TSS is routinely measured at ENP marsh stations, more than 50% of the observations are below detection limits, which range from 1 to 3 ppm. Concentration time series are not constructed for TSS.  Instead, a constant inflow concentration of 1 ppm is assumed.  An attempt can be made to construct concentration time series, if the water quality model is sensitive to TSS loads.

The following table summarizes the equations and assumptions used to translate loads computed for the above measured water quality into loads required by the water quality model:

Model Variables

Units

Calculation

Assumption

Dissolved Inorganic P

      ppb     

Ortho P + F1 x ( TP - Ortho P)

F1 = .1

Dissolved Organic P

ppb

F2 x ( TP - Ortho P)

F2 = .4

Particulate Inorganic P

ppb

F3 x (TP - Ortho P)

F3 = .1

Particulate Organic P

ppb

F4 x (TP - Ortho P)

F4 = .4

Nitrate + Nitrite N

ppb

Nitrate + Nitrite N

Ammonia N

ppb

Ammonia N

Dissolved Organic N

ppb

F5 x Total Organic N

F5 = .8

Particulate Organic N

ppb

(1-F5) x Total Organic N

Particulate Organic C

ppm

F6 x Total Organic Carbon

F6 = .05

Dissolved Organic C

ppm

(1 - F6) x Total Organic Carbon

Dissolved SiO2

ppm

Constant Assumed

Conc = 3.5

Particulate Biogenic SiO2

ppm

Constant Assumed

Conc = 0.5

Total Suspended Solids

ppm

Constant Assumed

Conc = 1

Dissolved Calcium

ppm

Dissolved Calcium

Particulate Calcium

ppm

F6 x Dissolved CA

F6 = 0.05

Salinity

ppm

F7 x Conductivity

F7 = 0.62

Alkalinity

ppm

Constant Assumed

Conc = 170

Chlorophyll-a

ppb

Chlorophyll-a

Sensitivity of model results to these assumptions should be determined. Software will be provided to generate load data files for alternative assumptions. 

Preliminary Results

The following table summarizes calculated flow and nutrient balances for each ENP basin in Calendar Years 1995-1997.  Outflows are reported using each set of monitoring stations (marsh, coastal).  All stations were routinely operated over this period, with the exception of coastal stations used to calculate loads from the ENP West basin (Stations TTI61, 62, & 63) and Cape Sable basin (Stations FLAB44,45, 47), which were established in July 1996.  Estimates for 1995 are based upon average concentrations in 1996-1997.  These basins are relatively small and do not have structure inflows, so the impacts of missing concentration data for 1995 are likely to be small.

     

Flow (kac-ft/yr)

Total P Load (mtons/yr)

Total N Load (mtons/yr)

Basin

Inflows

Outflows

    

Inflows

Marsh

Coastal

    

Inflows

Marsh

Coastal

West        

        0.0

87.8

0.00

     0.41

      2.36

0.0

   106.0

    102.2

Broad

348.2

565.6

3.20

3.20

13.28

368.8

696.4

572.5

Shark

1112.0

1525.8

9.10

12.94

40.87

1633.9

2407.1

1818.6

Sable

0.0

137.3

0.00

0.59

3.67

0.0

142.1

162.5

Taylor

115.8

340.1

0.67

1.53

5.34

104.2

357.7

428.6

Coastal

144.2

174.3

1.07

0.83

2.60

149.6

250.8

158.2

Barnes

0.0

15.7

0.00

0.07

0.13

0.0

20.7

12.9

Total

1720.2

2446.5

14.03

19.23

68.27

2256.5

3980.7

3255.5

Another attached table (PDF format) contains yearly-average flows and flow-weighted-mean concentrations for each structure and ENP basin in 1995, 1996, & 1997.

Preliminary results are displayed in the following formats:

Additional Tasks

The following additional tasks are required to develop refined estimates of nutrient loads from the Florida Mainland:

  • Refine assumptions used to estimate loads for unmeasured variables.

Provide Comments

Project Index

http://www.wwwalker.net/flabay/enploads.htm     Updated:  03/30/02